Bitcoin (BTC) Chart / Source: TradingView The Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are taking a breather on Saturday, with the cryptocurrency moving sideways just below the yearly highs it printed earlier this year near $38,000, with BTC last changing hands for around $37,150.
Macro Events and Bitcoin
The recent rally puts Bitcoin on course to post its strongest four-week run of gains since January. Speculation is rife that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to approve a batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs as soon as January, so newsflow on this topic will remain a big market mover for the foreseeable future. But macro events are also likely to remain in the spotlight. Next week sees the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for October that, if week like the latest US jobs and manufacturing PMI numbers, could add to bets that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, and that a rate cutting cycle will soon begin.
Was US inflation data to surprise to the upside and US retail sales numbers to push back against the idea of a US economic slowdown in Q4 after Q3’s surprising surge, Bitcoin could be at risk of a short-term correction of as much as 5%. But its worth noting that Bitcoin has been remarkably resilient to unfavorable macro developments in recent months. Price predictions are set to remain bullish. Chart analysis suggests that with Bitcoin having broken convincingly to the north of the resistance $32,000-$34,000ish resistance zone, a rally towards 2022 highs around $48,000 is likely.
Bull Market and Bitcoin
By the definition thrown around by investors when referring to bull markets in the stock market, Bitcoin’s bull market was confirmed as far back as the second week of January. With Bitcoin up more than 140% versus its 2022 lows in the $15,000s, it’s tough to argue against the notion that Bitcoin is not in a new bull market. Bitcoin is roughly one year into its new three-year bull market cycle, and could be set to enter an “acceleration phase” as soon as mid-2024, with BTC having last bottomed back in November 2022. This suggests that Bitcoin could match its record highs around $69,000 as soon as midway through next year.
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