Der er et nyt, ekstremt bullish Bitcoin-prismodel, der cirkulerer online – og dens skaber hævder, at hans prognoser er baseret på matematik og videnskab.
Det såkaldte “Bitcoin Power Law” har til formål at afbilde Bitcoins langsigtede prisstigning på en log-log skala, hvilket betyder, at både prisen og tiden skalerer eksponentielt langs dens y- og x-akse.
Resultatet? En graf, der stiger næsten lige opad og til højre og fanger spændvidden af Bitcoin’s højdepunkter og lavpunkter med en “forbløffende” nøjagtighed ifølge dens fortalere.
“Når vi forsøger at forstå data, kan vi lide, når data er lineære”, udtalte Giovanni Santostasi, en tidligere fysikprofessor ved McNeese State University, i sidste måned i et interview med Youtuber Andrei Jikh om sit model.
Ifølge Oxford Dictionary er et potenslov “en relation mellem to størrelser, således at den ene er proportional med en fast potens af den anden”. Forholdet skal eksistere uafhængigt af disse størrelsers initialstørrelse, dvs. de skalerer i en lige linje i ubestemt tid.
Potenslove er blevet opdaget på en række tilsyneladende uafhængige steder. De kan endda dukke op inden for finansområdet og forudsige afkastet af risikovillige risikovillige kapitalinvesteringer, den gennemsnitlige ventetid inden en akties retning ændres, og nu ser det ud til, at de også kan forudsige prisen på Bitcoin.
“Many did not believe me and said that the past cannot predict the future”, Santostasi wrote last month in a Reddit post, revising his years-long model. ” Well, after five years it turns out that BTC continues its power law behavior with a similar exponent.”
Algebrically, the BTC power law is expressed as follows: Estimated price=A * (Days since GB)^n.
GB refers to the Genesis Block of Bitcoin, mined on January 3, 2009. A equals 10^-17 and n equals 5.8.
Based on today’s date, the model estimates that the Bitcoin price should be at $64,564 – not far from the value speculated by short-term analysts in just a few months. Santostasi says his model predicts that BTC will reach its cycle “peak” of $210,000 in January 2026, before plummeting to its “trough” of $60,000 later that year. In the short term, he says the price of Bitcoin should not fall below $35,000 and will hit $1 million by 2033.
Of course, there is no guarantee that the Bitcoin price will follow this or any other forecast model. Some have expressed concern that the model could create unreasonable expectations for BTC investors and ultimately fail – similar to the widely criticized Stock-to-Flow model by PlanB that became popular in 2021.
Santostasi does respect certain elements of the Stock-to-Flow model, but largely criticizes it for forecasting an unlimited, exponential rise in the Bitcoin price. Instead, the physicist compares Bitcoin’s growth to that of a city, echoing Bitcoin billionaire Michael Saylor’s description of Bitcoin as a “shining city in cyberspace”.
“There is no S-curve acceptance with BTC,” he wrote on Twitter, adding that “power laws determine the growth of cities”.
“I find it fascinating how it grows like a city and represents a more stable and reliable model and capital than a system to get rich quick”, he added.
Udgivet af Andrew Hayward
